The Federal Reserve detonates the world, gold and crude oil keep an eye on the situation! Japan changes face, silver hits $59 for first time

On December 8, in early Asian trading on Monday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 98.94. Last Friday, the U.S. core PEC annual rate unexpectedly fell back to 2.8% in September, a three-month low. The U.S. dollar index finally closed down 0.08% at 98.99; U.S. bond yields rose to the highest level in weeks. Investors expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates hawkishly. The benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield finally closed at 4.1410%, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to the Fed's policy interest rate, closed at 3.5710%. Spot gold rose in the short term, once approaching the 4260 mark, but then fell back from its highs, giving up all the day's gains, closing below the 4200 integer mark, and finally closed down 0.27% at US$4197.13 per ounce; spot silver historically stood above the 59 mark, setting a record high for the second consecutive day, and finally closed up 2.03% at US$58.3 per ounce. The market judged that the Russia-Ukraine peace talks were unlikely to lead to the relaxation of sanctions in the short term. WTI crude oil finally closed up 0.7% at US$60.13/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 0.8% at US$63.87/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 98.94. Markets are still trying to figure out exactly where the Fed wants to go next, but mixed cn.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.orgments from policymakers aren't making that process any easier. As officials took slightly different directions on the pace of future rate cuts, investors became cautious and the dollar felt the pressure. Technically, if the U.S. dollar index successfully stabilizes above the 50-day moving average of 99.32, it will move to the next resistance level of 100.00-100.15.

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1648. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde acknowledged that global risks have eased, in part due to easing tensions between the United States and China, but she also stressed that the outlook remains highly uncertain. Technically, the nearest support level for EUR/USD is between 1.1585 and 1.1600. If EURUSD falls back below 1.1585, it will head towards the next support level at 1.1470–1.1485.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3330. GBP/USD's rally spurred by the UK Budget continues, with continued bearish sentiment on the US dollar adding to its rebound momentum. Technically, if GBP/USD falls below 1.3300, it will approach the nearest support level, located in the 1.3250 to 1.3265 range.

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

In the Asian market on Monday, gold hovered around 4208.98. If the Fed unexpectedly leaves interest rates unchanged, the dollar could strengthen in the near term and open the door for a sharp decline in gold. If the Fed chooses to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, gold's direction will mainly depend on what the dot plot shows

Technical: The technical outlook points to a bullish stance in the near term, as gold remains firmly above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), while the relative strength index (RSI) indicator remains above 60 on the daily chart. Additionally, gold continues to trade within a three-month-old ascending regression channel. On the upside, $4300-4315 (round-number levels, midpoint of the ascending channel) serves as the first resistance area, followed by $4380 (all-time high). Looking downward, support may be found at $4150-4130 (20-day SMA, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement), $4077-4070 (50-day SMA, lower limit of the ascending channel), and $3975 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement).

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Monday’s Asian session, crude oil was trading around 59.88. Traders put an 87% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points next week. Lower interest rates mean cheaper money, and cheaper money tends to drive growth—at least the idea of ​​growth. This is enough for energy to buyInvestors are back at the negotiating table, especially as U.S. consumer spending slows and the labor market appears unstable. The data is mixed, but the Fed is leaning dovish and that's what matters right now. Meanwhile, Trump is meeting with Mexico and Canada on trade. Any easing of tensions could further lift demand expectations - although we've been down similar paths before.

Technical: The 50-day moving average of $59.67 is the turning point. The next target for holding is the 200-day at $60.98 – close enough that buyers are on track to reach that target early next week if momentum continues. Once it loses, we are back to testing the $59.23 to $58.44 range, where previous trough buyers emerged.

Foreign exchange market transaction reminder on December 8, 2025

China's November trade balance is to be determined

Domestic refined oil products are to be determined to open a new round of price adjustment window

15:00 German industrial output monthly rate after seasonal adjustment in October

16:00 Swiss consumer confidence index in November

17:30 Eurozone 1 February Sentix Investor Confidence Index

The next day at 00:00 the next day, the New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations in November

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