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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: Oil prices hit a two-week high, waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision, gold prices stick to the 4200 mark, and the Ukrainian peace process may encounter obstacles again." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday (December 8, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$4,204 per ounce. The market is waiting for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this week. The current probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is 86.2%. At the same time, the geography is uncertain. Gold prices also support gold prices; U.S. crude oil is trading around $60.11 per barrel, with oil prices benefiting from demand expectations and geopolitical uncertainty. Trump's eldest son earlier suggested that U.S. President Trump may consider withdrawing from the Ukraine peace process as many close allies of Ukrainian President Zelenskiy continue to face corruption charges.
U.S. stocks closed slightly higher on Friday, with the latest economic data maintaining the market’s consensus expectation that the Federal Reserve will decide to cut interest rates at this week’s meeting.
Market participants have been digesting delayed data after the 43-day government shutdown ended. As the data backlog dwindles, investors are also turning to other secondary indicators to assess the health of the economy. Delayed data showed that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased by 0.3% month-on-month in September. The growth rate in August was revised down to 0.5%. In addition, as the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% month-on-month in September, the same as the increase in August; it rose 2.8% year-on-year, slightly higher than the 2.7% increase in August. Both year-on-year and month-on-month increases were in line with market expectations.
Another data showed that the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index rose to 53.3 in early December, higher thanEstimated 52. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets currently price an 86.2% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting, although several policymakers are expected to vote against it.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.22%, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.19%, and the Nasdaq cn.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.orgposite Index rose 0.31%. All major stock indexes posted their second consecutive weekly gain on Wednesday.
In terms of individual stocks, Warner Bros. Discovery's shares rose 6.3% after cn.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.orgflix agreed to acquire its television, movie studio and streaming divisions for US$72 billion. cn.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.orgflix's share price closed down 2.9%, while the share price of another bidder, Paramount Global, fell 9.8%. In terms of sectors, cn.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.orgmunications services stocks were the best performers, rising nearly 1% and hitting a record closing high. Healthcare stocks fell.
Market analysis shows that small-cap stocks that are sensitive to interest rates have continued their recent strong rebound. The Russell 2000 index rose 0.8% last week, after rising sharply by 5.5% the week before. Some portfolio managers pointed out that the recent significant decline in interest rates and market expectations for further declines in interest rates have promoted the strong performance of low-quality, highly leveraged and high-volatility stocks.
Gold prices rose last Friday, mainly driven by the market's increased expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Spot gold basically fluctuated around US$4,200 per ounce during the week. At the same time, silver prices hit a record high.
The head of strategy at TD Securities pointed out that the market's increased confidence in interest rate cuts has led to a slight weakening of the US dollar, which is good for gold. Economic data showed that the year-on-year increase in the core PCE price index in the United States in September slowed down, coupled with the weak employment data released previously, strengthening the market's expectations for a policy shift. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market expects that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at next week's meeting is as high as 86.2%.
Institutions predict that gold prices will trade in the range of US$4,200 to US$4,500 per ounce this year, and may further rise to US$4,500 to US$5,000 next year. However, in terms of physical demand, gold buying in India and China has weakened as they await price corrections.
Silver prices performed even more strongly, rising 2.6% last Friday and rising 4% last week, hitting a record high of $59.32 an ounce at one point. Silver prices have soared 98% so far this year, driven by supply shortages and being listed on the U.S. critical minerals list. Platinum prices were steady, while palladium edged higher.
Oil prices edged up about 1% on Friday, hitting a two-week high, as market expectations increased for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which could boost economic growth and energy demand, while geopolitical uncertainty may limit supply from Russia and Venezuela.
The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures rose 0.77% to US$63.75 per barrel. U.S. crude oil futures rose 0.69% to $60.08 a barrel. The two major crude oil indicators hit 11The highest closing price since March 18th.
Investors digested the U.S. inflation report and recalibrated expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. U.S. consumer spending slowed in September after three straight months of solid growth, a sign that economic growth weakened at the end of the third quarter as a weak labor market and rising costs of living dampened demand.
Investors are also watching news from Russia and Venezuela to determine whether oil supplies from the two sanctioned OPEC+ members will increase or decrease in the future.
U.S. peace talks on the Ukraine war in Moscow failed to achieve any major breakthroughs, pushing up oil prices. PVM oil market analysts said: "The lack of progress in the Ukraine peace talks constitutes a positive factor, but on the other hand, OPEC's production resilience constitutes a negative factor. These two opposite forces make the transaction appear calm."
Six people familiar with the matter revealed that the Group of Seven (G7) and the European Union are discussing replacing the price cap on Russian oil exports with a cn.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.orgplete ban on maritime services to reduce Russia's oil revenue used to finance the war in Ukraine.
The market is also preparing for a possible U.S. military invasion of Venezuela, after Trump reiterated that the United States will "soon" begin a land operation to cn.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.orgbat drug smuggling in Venezuela. The move could jeopardize Venezuela's 1.1 million barrels per day crude oil output.
The U.S. dollar index fell 0.1% on Friday to 98.994, close to a five-week low. Market traders are generally paying attention to this week's Federal Reserve resolution and expect policymakers to decide to cut interest rates at this meeting.
The euro was roughly flat against the dollar at $1.16433, close to a three-week high hit last Thursday. Traders see a near 90% chance of a rate cut by the Fed at this week's meeting, and expect two more rate cuts next year, according to market pricing data.
Some strategists said that weak labor market data has further strengthened market expectations for an interest rate cut, but the 90% probability may still appear too high. At the same time, many major brokerages, including Morgan Stanley, have changed their forecasts and now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. These institutions had expected interest rates to remain unchanged.
The strategists also pointed out that the U.S. dollar is still overvalued relative to major currencies, so the current weakening trend is reasonable. Data released on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment improved in early December, but this had a limited effect on boosting the dollar.
The market is also paying attention to the prospect that White House economic adviser Hassett may take over as chairman of the Federal Reserve after Powell's term ends, and he is expected to push for more interest rate cuts. Some analysts believe that market expectations for an interest rate cut this week and a possible more dovish Fed stance in the future will continue to put pressure on the dollar.
The yen rose 0.1% against the dollar to 155.295. The yen has recently been supported by expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates this month. There are reports that Bank of Japan officials are ready toThe interest rate was raised in December despite a major economic shock.
The pound was little changed against the dollar at $1.3329, close to a six-week high reached in the previous session.
The next two weeks will usher in policy decisions from multiple central banks. In addition to the Federal Reserve, the central banks of Australia, Canada and Switzerland will announce decisions this week. In the following week, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Riksbank will also issue resolutions one after another.
According to US media reports, the United States and Ukraine delegations concluded their three-day talks in Miami, Florida on the 6th. The two sides mainly discussed territorial and security issues. The U.S. Axios news website reported on the 6th, citing people familiar with the matter, that discussions on territorial issues are difficult. Russia still requires Ukraine to withdraw its troops from parts of Donbas controlled by Ukraine, and the United States is trying to cn.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.orge up with a new plan. Another key issue is U.S. security assurances for Ukraine. A source said that the two sides had made significant progress and were close to reaching an agreement, but further consultations were still needed to ensure that both sides interpreted the draft security guarantees in a consistent manner.
On December 6, local time, French President Macron announced that he would go to London on the 8th to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky, British Prime Minister Starmer and German Chancellor Mertz to jointly assess the current situation in Ukraine and peace negotiations under the framework of US mediation. Macron said that the situation in Ukraine is related to the security of the entire Europe, and Europe will continue to work with the United States to provide security guarantees for Ukraine.
U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth said in a speech in California on the 6th that the Trump administration will "put the country's actual interests first," emphasizing that the United States and the Western Hemisphere are national security priorities. Hegseth delivered a speech at the annual Reagan Defense Forum that day, expressing support for the new national security strategy released by the White House on the evening of the 4th. He said that the United States should "abandon idealistic utopian thinking and embrace pragmatic realism" and should not be "distracted by democratic construction, interventionism, unknown wars, regime changes, climate change, awakening moral preaching and irresponsible nation-building". "We will put the actual interests of the country first."
Recently, it was disclosed that according to two US officials and a Western source, US President Trump plans to announce the second phase of the Gaza peace process before December 25 and announce the new governance structure of the Gaza Strip.
On December 5, local time, the U.S. government announced that it would establish a new review center to strengthen the review of foreign citizens.Background checks for immigration applications. The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) issued a statement on the same day saying that the newly established "USCIS Vetting Center" will be headquartered in Atlanta to assist federal officials in identifying potential terrorists, foreign nationals involved, and other individuals who may pose a threat to national security or public safety. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services Director Joe Edlow said that in light of recent violent incidents, establishing this review center will enable the United States to more effectively maintain national security and ensure public safety in an evolving threat environment.
On the 7th local time, Venezuelan Vice President Rodriguez called on the entire industry to remain "highly vigilant" while cn.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.orgmunicating with oil industry employees at a heavy crude oil processing facility in Anzoategui state, and pointed out that "the enemy never stops." Rodriguez reiterated that amid the current tense situation between Venezuela and the United States, the government will firmly safeguard national sovereignty and independence.
Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., hinted earlier today that US President Trump may consider withdrawing from the Ukraine peace process as many close allies of Ukrainian President Zelensky continue to face corruption charges. Speaking at the Doha Forum, Donald Trump Jr. called Ukraine "much more corrupt than Russia" and described Zelensky as "one of the greatest marketers of all time." When asked whether his father would withdraw from the relevant peace talks, he responded: "I think he might."
The latest statistics released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange show that as of the end of November 2025, the scale of my country's foreign exchange reserves was US$3,346.4 billion, an increase of US$3 billion from the end of October, an increase of 0.09%. In November 2025, affected by factors such as macroeconomic data and monetary policy expectations from major economies, the U.S. dollar index fell, and global financial asset prices were mixed. The scale of foreign exchange reserves increased that month due to the cn.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.orgbined effects of factors such as exchange rate conversion and changes in asset prices. my country's economy has maintained overall stability and a trend of steady and progressive development, providing support for the basic stability of the scale of foreign exchange reserves.
The latest data from the China Futures Association showed that from January to November, the cumulative trading volume of the national futures market was 8.117 billion lots, and the cumulative turnover was 675.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.74% and 20.19% respectively. Up to now, a total of 164 futures and options varieties have been listed in my country, providing strong support for improving the resilience and safety level of industrial and supply chains.
China Logistics and ProcurementAccording to the China Purchase Federation, the global manufacturing PMI in November 2025 was 49.6%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and has been running in the range of 49%-50% for 9 consecutive months. In terms of regions, the Asian manufacturing PMI was the same as last month and was still in the expansion range of more than 50%; the European manufacturing PMI was the same as last month and was still below 50%; the African manufacturing PMI dropped from the previous month, and dropped from more than 50% last month to below 50%; the American manufacturing PMI dropped from the previous month and continued to run below 49%. cn.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.orgprehensive index changes show that the recovery intensity of the global manufacturing industry has weakened slightly cn.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.org.xmtrade.orgpared with last month, and the index remains above 49%, indicating that the global manufacturing industry has not departed from the recovery range this year, but the recovery intensity still needs to be strengthened. In terms of regions, Asia's manufacturing industry maintains expansion, which is better supporting the recovery of the global economy; the recovery trend of Europe's manufacturing industry has not changed much from the previous month; the recovery of manufacturing in the Americas continues to weaken; the recovery of manufacturing in Africa has turned from strong to weak.
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